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I hate getting my feet wet...

... but today I had no choice.   It rained... and hailed! 

Just 4 more weeks before the L.A. Marathon.  I've gotten so much support from friends and workmates; I'm compelled to keep up the program because they've supported me and my charity (The Second Harvest Food Bank of Orange County).

Today was a 21-miler.  I usually run along the trail that parallels the Santa Ana river.  At about mile 3 the rain started up.  A little drizzle at first but I could see the rain clouds to the west -- the direction in which I was running.  The rain clouds were headed east, towards me.  Well, at about mile 6 it kicked in full force.  With rain, wind and, yes, hail.  I can honestly say I've never actually experienced running in a hailstorm before.  These weren't big hail stones.  Just little pellets.  So, to get through it, I pretended to be Superman out on a hunting stroll with Dick Cheney.  ;-)

Good news!  There's now a drinking fountain just West of the 17-mile marker and near where the railroad track intersects the Santa Ana River trail!

Anyway, about 3 hours later, I completed the run.  While I don't feel totally ready for a 26.2-miler yet, I do feel I will be ready by March 19th.

Again, thanks to everyone who has supported me:  my friends, work mates at First Team Real Estate, clients and my family.  I'll keep you all posted at least weekly.  And, remember, if you know someone who you think would appreciate supporting a worthy charity (The Second Harvest Food Bank of Orange County), feel free to forward them a link to this weblog (http://aclaro.blogs.com) and to the donor's page at:  http://www.active.com/donate/secondharvestoc/shMAclaro.

Thanks again.  I'll keep you posted.

Orange County Home Prices and Sales - through Jan 27, 2006.

(Click the image to zoom.)
(source:  OC Home Prices and Sales, 2/12/2006)

Slowing sales volume.  Higher prices.

That seems to be the continuing trend with the latest report from Dataquick for the 4 weeks ending January 27, 2006.

The overall trend for sales volume -- including resale homes, condos and new nomes -- is down by about 18% since the same 4-week period last year.

Meanwhile, the overall trend for sales price (again, including resale homes, condos and new homes) is up by almost 7% since last year.

But when you look at this, don't just stand pat with the overall sales volume and overall median price.  Ya gotta also take a look at the components. 

Interestingly, the new homes component is down in median price by about -36% while volume is up by about +26%.  The likely culprit here is the increased number of condo conversions from apartments.  These get recorded as new homes when the conversion takes place.

Meanwhile, those trends are reversed when you look at the resale home and condominium components.  While sales are continuing to slow (down by over 22%), there's not alot of respite for buyers when you look at the median price.  Median price is up by over 16% in the resale home and condominium component.  So far, these pricing trends seem to be on track with earlier forecasts of +10% to +15% price increases for 2006.

Summary: If you're gonna make a move to buy, buy sooner rather than later (especially with the prospect of increasing interest rates later this quarter). But, I've been increasingly telling my clients that if you're gonna buy, pay attention to those front-end ratios (no more than about 33%) and back-end ratios (no more than about 40%) you used to hear about.  ;-)  While the long term trend of real estate is upward, we don't know what's happening next year for home price trends and, unless you're trading equity from the sale of a another home, you wouldn't otherwise want to to be caught without a shock absorber if you're a first time buyer. 

$400 million home...in Indiana.

This house in Valparaiso, Indiana valued at $400 million!  And you thought Orange County was bad. 

Source:  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11278451/

5 more weeks to the L.A. marathon.

Five more weeks before the L.A. marathon. 

Each Sunday I do a long run as part of my training regimen.  Today is Sunday.  My run today wasn't my best showing.  :-(   It was one of those runs when I really felt like I had to fight each mile. 

My knee is coming along.  The knee brace I finally bought this past week is helping.  But I definitely felt the consequences today of the reduced running activity over the past week while I was dealing with the knee-thing.  The bike machines in the gym helped me keep the cardio up a bit but I really need to keep running.  I think the knee brace is gonna help keep me on the road from here on out.

My program had me tapering down from the 19-miler a few weeks ago in preparation for my peak 23-miler next Sunday.  After that, I'll taper down again toward the marathon on March 19.

Thanks for all of you who continue to support me with encouragement.  My continuing thanks, too, to those who have contributed to the fundraising I've linked this run to on behalf of The Second Harvest Food Bank of Orange County. 

For others who would like to add your support, you can go to my fundraising page on active.com by heading over to my web site (www.OCRealEstateZone.com) and then clicking "Help Mel Run Against Hunger".

Even $1 helps because with the buying power of this non-profit organization, they can stretch each dollar donated by 12x.  And, their efficiency, with 94.2% of each dollar going to support their mission, makes this a worthy organization.  Make sure you include your correct email address.  That's where your receipt for tax purposes will be sent.  (Don't worry.  Your email won't be sold or redistributed.  I won't use it to solicit for business.  It's only so you can efficiently receive a receipt for tax purposes.)

I'll continue to keep you posted of my progress.  Thanks again for all your support.

Zillow.com has lots of work to do

I was doing a similar assessment about one of the companies I recently posted about (Bring it on).  Colin Stewart [Morning Eye] beat me to it (article below).  It suggests that a local real estate consultant is still needed when thinking about a move.  It's also a reason why, even though I'm in the business with access to many tools that help me determine value in different areas, I still refer out to other local agents those of my customers who are thinking about an out-of-area move.

Yet still, and despite the fact that I am an Orange County real estate agent for whom the likes of zillow.com might otherwise be a competitor, I'm still "up" on the trend as another tool that will eventually add value to the growing toolbox being created for consumers.  It just need a little more "aging" for it to be of seamless value.  (About 2 to 3 years, would you say?)  (Ref also "Bring it on")

Rich Barton, creator of the Expedia site for travelers, scored a public-relations coup this week when he launched his Zillow.com Web site that estimates values for homes nationwide.

It got so much media coverage that the site was swamped with curious visitors -- so many, in fact, that for a while the Web site couldn't handle the traffic.

Now that the crush has eased, it's possible to visit Zillow.com and check how accurate it is. My early evaluation: It's so-so.

I reached that conclusion by checking Zillow.com estimates for five O.C. homes that sold in November and December -- in other words, five properties with a known market value, at least as of the sale date...[read more about the variations, some ranging from 0.8% to 36.4% from the Morning Eye]

Bring it on.

A friend and I were talking the other day about possible futures for real estate transactions.

One of the worlds we talked about is that in which real estate transactions go the way of customer self service.  You wanna buy a house, you log on to a web site and talk to a wizard. 

That is, a piece of software that guides you through a series of questions to which responses are entered.  Based on your responses, the software branches down different paths and presents you with even more context-specific questions.  Little-by-little, the software continues to refine its questions to the end.  All the while, it populates the appropriate fields in the right real estate transaction forms.  The completed forms can then be printed and submitted in person, through traditional fax, email, or via the online software and so on. 

Hey, if they can do it with tax software why not with real estate transactions? 

I used to say that I'd be willing to wager about 2 to 5 years for that world to emerge in the mainstream.  But, as time goes on, I tweak that timeframe lower with each passing quarter: about 2 to 3 years now, I think.

In just the last year, I've seen more and more dot.coms turn concepts into prototypes, then prototypes into betas.  Some fly, others go back to the drawing board.  Here're a couple more that are emerging:  zillow and redfin. 

Zillow lets customers create CMAs, or comparable market analyses, without the intervention of a local real estate agent.  Redfin goes down a different path by actually trying to facilitate the home purchase transaction itself with online software.  Sorta like the "Turbo Home Buy" equivalent of "Turbo Tax."

I know I may get busted by some of my real estate colleagues for posting the links above.  Zillow and Redfin are, after all, emerging "trons" who're competing against us in an ever-competitive landscape.  Why, therefore, give them anymore air time?  "Are you crazy, Mel?"

I have to believe that just as many of my colleagues, however, will be supportive.  Lobbying efforts by the associations of Realtors notwithstanding, there'll be enough who believe, as I do, that you can't hide this stuff.  In fact, it should probably be embraced as one of the items you line up in the full suite of services presented to customers.  The full suite should be discussed openly.  If trust is present, the customer would be willing to hear you out on the pros/cons of each offering.  The customer, as always, will then choose what's right for her/his situation.

I think industry professionals who may be threatened by emerging technologies such as the above are those who have no other value proposition than to position themselves as the low cost provider. 

Others who define quality differently and make a reasonable presentation of value in terms of ROI (vs. cost reduction) will, I think, say "bring it on."

What do you think?

(Reference article: Changing the way property is sold.  Orange County Register, Feb 9, 2006.  Business p. 5.)

Fire update: Not out of the woods yet but looking up.

Again, I'm extending my high regard for the 950+ fire fighters.  They're doing a great job keeping the fire at bay.  One tangible evidence of this is the majority of previously evacuated homeowners who are now able to return home.  Thanks to our firefighting teams!  (Note: Photo by T. Young via OCRegister.com.  Shows a great view of lined up fire equipment at the nearby Canyon Rim Elementary School just a couple of miles from my home.)

One honorable mention I have, too, is for my clients and customers.  I've had a few calls today just asking about our well-being.  And, I've personally noticed more patience and just an overall feeling of "taking-things-in-stride" from people on the streets.  Isn't it interesting how people just seem to talk more to each other when events like this happen?  Sorta reminds me of "snow days" back in Virginia when I used to live just outside the D.C. beltway.

And, while I'm sorry to hear about those who had to evacuate from their homes, it was also heartening to hear how the Red Cross shelters were actually not filled anywhere near capacity.  There may be other reasons, but the one that I seem to hear alot -- and which I like to think of -- is that people were taking others into their homes.  If not by family, then by friends.

My well-wishes and thoughts continue to be with our fire fighters, local officials, and to friends helping friends... Let's keep "paying it forward."  :-)

Anaheim Hills (Sierra Peak) Fire Update (cont.)

Update 11/15/2008.  If you're looking for the 11/15/2008 Anaheim Hills and Yorba Linda fire update, click here.  (The reference below is to the 2006 Anaheim Hills fire.)

I've posted some information from the City of Anaheim at the OCRealEstateZone.com regarding fire updates, resources, maps, a short list of local hotels that have offered discounts to local residents displaced by the fire, and so on. 

Here's the latest update from the city of Anaheim as of 11 a.m. 2/7/2006.  You can check any of the following links for more information:  www.anaheim.net or www.OCRealEstateZone.com.

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Sierra Peak Wildfire Update:
Firefighters made substantial progress on the Sierra Peak fire last evening. The Orange County Fire Authority has placed the fire at a 7% containment level. The wind is expected to return this morning, so pre-deployed police and fire resources are still in place in Anaheim Hills. We anticipate a decision on the lifting of the mandatory and voluntary evacuation areas at approximately 4 p.m.

Road Closures
• Serrano Avenue is closed from Nohl Ranch Road to Canyon Rim Road.
• Access to Nohl Ranch Road is restricted to residents with ID only.
• The Eastern 241 Toll Road is closed from the Riverside (91) Freeway to the Eastern (133) Toll Road.

(More at OCRealEstateZone.com)

Anaheim Hills (Sierra Peak) Fire Update.

Update: 11/15/2008. If you're looking for the November 15, 2008 Anaheim Hills and Yorba Linda Fire Update, click here. (The references below are from the 2006 Anaheim Hills fire.)

Thanks to everyone who have called since yesterday to see how we're doing.  We're fine.  No homes have burned, nor are any currently being immediately threatened, in Anaheim Hills.  The firefighters have been doing a great job keeping this thing at bay. 

Calls of concern began coming in when the media reported evacuations in Anaheim Hills.  Reports of spot fires on the west side of a major toll road (241) separating the fire from Anaheim Hills also caused some concern. 

True, some roads have been closed and evacuations have happened.  But these have mainly been for a stretch of tracts in the eastern-most part of Anaheim Hills.  None of these homes are immediately in harms way.  The spot fires have been put out.

Thanks to our local firefighters and civil authorities!  :-)

Later today, I'll cross-post some information here and at the OCRealEstateZone.com so local residents, clients and customers can get timely updates. 

In the meantime, feel free to trackback to this post or forward this weblog's link (http://aclaro.blogs.com/) to your friends and family.  I'll keep updates posted as things change

On a personal note:  to all my family, friends and clients: thanks again for calling and caring.  :-)

Superbowl videos.

In case you missed any of the superbowl ads, Guy Kawasaki posted a film loop on his weblog (here) so any of us can revisit any of the ones you may have missed.

Also available on google videos --> http://video.google.com/superbowl.html

The FedEx ad is still my favorite.